In 10 days, time, the people of Edo State will be out to elect a new governor that will take over from the incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki, whose two terms in office come to an end on November 16. Campaigns for the Edo governor’s seat have been intense by candidates of 17 political parties ahead of the September 21 election. In this piece, ‘SUYI AYODELE looks at the factors that will shape the election.
EDO State is in frenzy ahead of the September 21 election in the state, with all 17 political parties in the contest not leaving anything to chance. Typical of elections in Nigeria, the electioneering for the Edo gubernatorial poll has been characterized by carpet-crossing, realignments, horse-trading and violence. Pundits have identified candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) as frontrunners, though the PDP and the APC have been natural opponents in the state’s political landscape. But, the LP, especially after its outing in the 2023 general election, has shown its capability to give the PDP and APC a run for their money.
Besides the election being a three-horse race, the forthcoming election is peculiar in several ramifications. The peculiarity of it lies more in the rivalry between the PDP and the APC, not just at the national level, but that it is more of a status and influence contest between two hitherto jolly-good-fellows, Governor Godwin Obaseki, and his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. The duo were political bedfellows such that against all protestations, Oshiomhole, as the outgoing governor in 2016, made Obaseki, who then was politically unknown, the governor of the state on the platform of the APC. However, matters came to a head between them and they became politically irreconcilable. The peak of that love lost was the disqualification of Obaseki by the APC, when he sought his second term in 2020. Oshiomhole, who then was the national chairman of the APC, ensured that his estranged godson did not get the much-desired second term ticket. Obaseki was forced to move to the waiting hands of the PDP, and all those who had one axe to grind with Oshiomhole rallied round the governor and saw to Obaseki’s victory, which left the Oshiomhole political dynasty bleeding as it lost 13 out of the 18 local government areas in the state.
After the 2020 scenario, Oshiomhole’s camp re-grouped and re-strategised. By the time the camp came out of its political laboratory, it was in a good stead to give Governor Obaseki and his PDP a run for their strength. The real test of power played out in the 2023 general election when PDP failed to win any of the three senatorial seats in the state. Oshiomhole clinched the slot for Edo North senatorial District for his APC. He did not stop there, he mobilised his supporters in Edo Central to get Senator Monday Okpebholo, who is the APC governorship candidate, to win for the APC. The former governor was able to achieve that feat because Obaseki attempted to change the political arrangement in the district which shares political offices between the two sub-ethnic groups of Agabzilo and Okpebholo. While Obaseki insisted on returning Senator Clifford Odia from Agbazilo for a third term, the people opted to follow their ancient political landmark of zoning the senatorial seat to the Okpebholo axis and the APC was politically wise to have chosen an Okpebholo man, in the person of Monday Okpebholo, as its candidate. Thus, the district, which gave a block vote to the PDP in the 2020 re-election bid of Obaseki, changed and voted for the APC. The battle ground shifted to the Edo South Senatorial District where Obaseki hails from. At the count of the ballot, Obaseki, who in 2020, won in all the seven local governments areas of the Edo South senatorial District, was defeated by the new entrant to the Edo politics, the LP, which won the election. The outcome of the 2023 general election, no doubt taught the two major political parties bitter lessons. Thus, when the House of Assembly election came calling, Obaseki charged like a wounded bull and put both the APC and LP back to their former statuses as opposition parties in the state.
The defining factors
Edo has been in that state of political-balance-of-power till January 2024, when the political parties conducted their governorship primaries to pick their standard bearers for the September 21 gubernatorial election. Just as the election is about three major political parties, the factors that are likely to determine who will emerge victorious at the end of the exercise are, to a greater extent, three dimensional. Except for the factor of ethnicity, which the PDP and the APC have settled to the disadvantage of the LP, which picked its candidate, Olumide Osaigbovo Akpata from Edo South Senatorial District, the guber race is a three-way race. The first is the personalities of the candidates. The second is the financial strength of the candidates and parties. The last is the roles of godfathers cum third-part advocacies.
If personality were to determine who becomes the governor of the state in November, the contest would have been between the candidate of the PDP, Asue Ighodalo, and that of the LP, Olumide Akpata. The candidate of the APC, though, a sitting senator, does not come into reckoning in that parameter. Akpata himself alluded to that when in his engagement with Edo citizens in the Diaspora in the United States of America (USA), penultimate week, said that he focused all his attention on the PDP because there is nothing in the APC.
During the APC primary and while the crisis that rocked the exercise lasted, a stalwart of the party from Edo North told the Nigerian Tribune in confidence that one of the reasons why some known allies of Oshiomhole opted for Okpebholo was because “many of us believe that Comrade (Oshiomhole) is carrying his hatred for the Esan people (Edo Central) too far. Some of us cannot understand why Comrade would want to bring another Benin man to be governor after Obaseki. I am from Edo North, but I believe it is fair enough to allow an Esan man to be the governor. The only regret here is that the man we are all supporting, Akpakomiza (Okpebholo) does not have the personality. But we will rather have him than let Comrade impose another Benin man (Dennis Idahosa, the APC running mate) on us the way he did that of Obaseki in 2016.”
Another APC member, who also pleaded anonymity, said that the “Okpebholo’s candidacy is what you get when you have a leader who does not listen to anybody. I must confess that it is difficult to defend the choice if you talk about charisma. We know what the deficiencies are, but we have no choice because if we did not do what we did by supporting Okpebholo, Oshiomhole would have had his way again. If we don’t win this election, the leadership of the party will have themselves to blame, especially Oshiomhole. He forced us to back the man (Okpebholo) to win the primary.” Asked if he did not see the personality of the candidate coming to play in the outcome of the election, the APC chieftain said: “To a large extent. But you also have to talk about the sophistication of the electorate. Forget about the videos of our campaign that are in circulation; the man has also improved.”
Juxtaposing the charisma, disposition and grasps of the APC standard bearer with those of the PDP and the APC candidates, there would be no contest in the first place. The two are in different realms. In terms of articulation, eloquence and grasp of the issue of governance, it would be a hard choice to make between Ighodalo and Akpata. As lawyers, both have made footprints in the sounds of time in their chosen profession. Akpata, for instance, is a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), while Ighodalo has been chairman of many blue-chip corporate bodies, such as Sterling Bank Plc and for eight years, an adviser to Oshiomhole on economic matters while the former held sway as the governor of the state. On the podium, seeking for votes, the PDP and the LP candidates are demagogues, with sound oratory prowess and good crowd engagement delivery. So, if personality, mien and charisma were the parameters at stake, Ighodalo and Akpata, no doubt, are the two options before Edo people.
The divide between the Agbazilo and Okpebholo sub-ethnic groups of Edo Central is also likely to play a major role on how the voting will be in that district. Nigerian Tribune gathered that majority of the people in the area have the strong feeling that the Okpebholo axis, having gotten the senatorial seat in the person of the APC candidate, senator Monday Okpebholo, it would only be right and fair, if the Agbazilo axis, comprising Uromi, Ubiaja, Ewohimi, Ewatto and Uzea, should produce the governor. This argument becomes stronger when juxtaposed with the undeniable fact that the Okpebholo axis (Ekpoma, Irrua, Ewu, Igueben, etc), had produced two governors in the past in the persons of the late Professor Ambrose Folorunsho Alli and Professor Osarheimen Osunbor, whose term was cut short by the Court of Appeal in 2028.
The PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, hails from Ewohim in Agbazilo axis of the district. If the Esan people decide to maintain the ancient political configuration, they are likely to vote more for the PDP candidate as his emergence as governor would have sustained that age-long tradition of political distribution.
The deputy governors’ strings for their principals
The personalities of the deputy governorship candidates, especially those of the PDP, Omorodion Ogie, and the APC’s Dennis Idahosa, are expected to play vital roles. Of the duo, Ogie enjoys more acceptability across all political parties. It is on record that he was a Commissioner for Works under Oshiomhole for eight years, and until two three weeks ago when he resigned to face his political ambition, the Secretary to the Edo State Government (SSG) since 2016. In the political crossfire between Obaseki and Oshiomhole in 2020, Ogie maintained a dignified position of absolute neutrality. In the current campaign, when Oshiomhole threw some darts at his direction, he remained calm. Ogie is a man one can easily say to be at home in any of the political camps in the state. The APC deputy governorship candidate, Idahosa, also enjoys some level of goodwill. Apart from being a sitting member of the House of Representatives, winning his re-election by defeating Omosede Igbinedion of the PDP, he also served in the cabinet of Oshiomhole briefly before he was booted out by the former Labour leader. Placed side-by-side, Ogie, the PDP running mate towers far above his APC counterpart, while the LP running mate, Alhaji Yusuf Asamah Kadiri (SAN), largely looms in the dark, politically.
On the issue of financial strength, there is no doubt that money will play a major role in the election. The stage was laid during the primaries of three major parties. From cash to physical gifts, the aspirants then serenaded the parties’ delegates. Many of the delegates were given cars and others got different sums of money. During that exercise, the LP candidate, Akpata, showed more understanding of the power of money in politics and its dynamics. In reaching out to the delegates, Akpata chose the direct route of meeting the delegates personally thus eliminating the problems of leaders of the party shortchanging the delegates. That was not the case in the PDP and the APC, where there were allegations that it was not the actual amount of money voted for each delegate that got to them. The real election is not expected to be different; this is more so when one considers the level of poverty in the country and the current situation of deprivation occasioned by the economic policies of the government of the day.
The biggest of the factors that will be a determiner in the election is the factor of godfatherism and those involved in third party advocacy for the various candidates. The latter are those non-political actors, but who for one reason or the other, have elected to be involved in the electioneering. Those in these categories are those who believe in the narrative that certain candidates are not “home-grown” politicians. A few of the advocacy groups are people, who also believe that the godfather of one of the candidates has not shown enough respect to the state’s traditional institutions. If these narratives are to be huge factors, Ighodalo of the PDP will be the worst hit victim. His political traducers seize every opportunity to draw it home that he is an ‘outsider’ like his chief promoter, Governor Obaseki, and as such, might not understand the immediate needs and political yearnings of the locals. Both Ighodalo and the PDP have laboured to dispel such a narrative. The same is applicable to the campaign that Obaseki has not shown enough respect to the traditional institution, and that if elected, Ighodalo might also toe that line. However, a Benin palace source had, at the weekend, dismissed Obaseki’s alleged contempt for the Benin throne as a campaign of calumny. The source, who is largely apolitical, said that it was a strong misconception” to label Obaseki as contemptuous of the Benin Palace. “The governor, to the best of my knowledge, has not done anything to show that he has no respect for the Oba of Benin. I am sure that our Oba too, cannot, in true conscience, say that Obaseki disrespects him,” the source submitted.
The issue of godfatherism is between the PDP and the APC. The LP is free of all encumbrances when it comes to that, as its candidate, Akpata, is the most organic of all the three major political parties in the race. He is the only one among the lot that had nobody who stood by his candidature and who owes nobody any allegiance. If the fear of control of the godfather is a genuine fear for the electorate to choose who should rule the state, Akpata is the one who can beat his chest and say that he has nobody who will breathe down his neck while in power. He owes nobody any political allegiance and he has no political IOU to service should he emerge victorious. His major weak point in the election is the issue of his ethnic background of being a Benin man like the outgoing governor, Obaseki, who also hails from the same senatorial district. Since the beginning of the current political dispensation, Edo South has had 16 years of governorship and eight years of deputy governorship in the persons of Lucky Igbinedion, who governed the state for eight years between 1999 and 2007; Dr Pius Odubu, who served as deputy governor under Oshiomhole from 2008-2016; and the incumbent governor, Obaseki, who has been in the saddle from 2016. Edo North on its part, produced Oshiomhole as governor from 2008 to 2018, just as the district produced Chief Mike Oghiadomhe as deputy governor to Igbinedion between 1999 and 2007, and Comrade Philip Shaibu as deputy governor to Obaseki from 2016 to April 2024, when he was removed by the Edo State House of Assembly. Though reinstated about a month ago, the Assembly has appealed that judgement. Of the three senatorial districts, only Edo Central has not produced a governor or deputy governor save for the period, Professor Osariemen Osunbor was declared winner of the 2007 governorship election but was removed by the Court of Appeal panel that declared Oshiomhole as the true winner of the poll. It was that configuration that birthed the candidacies of Ighodalo of PDP and then forced the APC to pick Okpebholo, who also hails from the same senatorial district, Esanland.
The underlying Obaseki versus Oshiomhole battle
Little wonder then that in this current contest, Oshiomhole has entered the ring as if his name is on the ballot paper. In the Edo political scene, anyone who underrates Oshiomhole’s worth does so at his own risk. The senator representing the Edo North senatorial District is no doubt a huge political mobiliser and a politician with street sense. For him, the September 21 election is between him, his popularity and the incumbent governor Obaseki, who almost retired the former Labour leader from politics. The animosity between the duo plays out in all the political campaigns of the APC, where Oshiomhole has never lost any opportunity to cast aspersion at the governor. The former national chairman of the APC was on the wrong side of public opinion a week ago, when he referred to the challenges Obaseki and his wife, Besty, are facing in childbearing. Though, Okpebholo was not the preferred candidate of Oshiomhole, as he would have had Idahosa, the deputy governorship candidate of the party as the flag bearer, the Iyamoh, Etasko West-born Labour man -turned politician, has no choice than to deplore his political arsenals and spread his tentacles to garner votes for the APC candidate.
Besides, not a few political bigwigs in the PDP, who felt aggrieved at the way Obaseki has carried on in government to their exclusion, are teaming up with Oshiomhole. For instance, a former member of the House of Representatives in Oredo Federal Constituency, Omoregie Ogeide-Ihama, the now suspended National Vice-Chairman, South-South, of the party, Chief Dan Orbih, and a former Board of Trustees (BOT) Member of the PDP, Mr. Charles Idahosa, and a host of others have gone to be with Oshiomhole in the APC to “teach Obaseki a political lesson,” as they claimed to be doing. If that factor is the sole determiner of who wins the election, Okpebholo can as well assign the prefix, His Excellency to his name.
Speaking on the influence of godfathers ahead of the September 21 election, a public analyst, Julius Aibangbee, said that he expected “Edo voters to rise above that type of sentiment. I will be shocked if anybody will vote for Okpebholo because Comrade Oshiomhole said so or vote for Ighodalo, because Governor Obaseki so directed. Comrade Oshiomhole is the advocate of ‘no to godfatherism,’ how come he is the one now playing that same role? I think the race is between Ighodalo and Okpebholo, the two being Esan. I expect the voters to examine the two candidates and choose whoever merits to be in Government House.”
“The beauty of this whole election is the fact that Esan people will no longer feel marginalised after the election because one of their sons will be elected. I am from Edo South, but there is no way I can route for Akpata without offending my conscience and sense of fairness. Akpata would have been my natural choice because of his antecedents as not being attached to any known political figure. But the mere fact that he is a Benin man will not allow me to support his aspiration. Incidentally, Akpata still has age on his side,” Aibangbee posited.
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