Elections in Nigeria have their own peculiarities, different from other countries’ where there is semblance of established order. In Nigeria, the gods of elections are irrational and most often, insane, such that even a past presidential election winner in the country had to come out to discredit his own victory. With the three off-season elections in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa four weeks away, YEKINI JIMOH, JOHN KENNEDY UZOMA and IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI examine the situations on ground in the affected states and whether the insatiable gods of Nigerian elections will be appeased.
It is less than one month to the off-cycle governorship elections in Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa states and situations in the three states have become more intense with gladiators of the major political parties in the states employing different tactics to create favourable impressions among the electorate.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), about 5.4 million voters have been registered ahead of the governorship poll slated for November 11 in the three states. Disclosing this in a statement on Tuesday, the commission’s National Commissioner and Chairman of its Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun, said, “For the forthcoming elections, there are 1,056,862 registered voters in Bayelsa State; 2,419,922 in Imo State; and 1,932,654 in Kogi State, making a combined total of 5,409,438 registered voters for the three states.” He went on to say that all the political parties participating in the elections would receive soft copies of the entire voter register for the affected states.
The national commissioner further gave a breakdown of the number parties that will be fielding candidates in the elections across the three states. According to him, “In Bayelsa State, 16 political parties are sponsoring candidates; in Imo State, 17; and in Kogi State, all 18 parties are sponsoring candidates.”
Olumekun added that as part of the commission’s ongoing commitment to furthering the use of technology for voter accreditation and result management, plans for mock voter accreditation in the three states have been completed to test the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the upload of polling unit results to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). According to the national commissioner, the exercise will be conducted concurrently in the three states on Saturday from 8:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m., adding that the list of designated polling units for each state has been uploaded to its website and social media platforms.
But with just three weeks away from the exercise, Sunday Tribune investigations show that the major political parties across the three states are leaving no stone unturned in their bid to capture and retain the seat of power in their states.
Kogi
In Kogi State, though INEC announced that 18 political parties will be slugging it out for the number one office, the race, it appears, is among three of them: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP). This, however, is not say that the other political parties have not been making frantic efforts to win the November 11 poll.
The standard-bearer of the PDP, Senator Dino Melaye, has been campaigning across the nooks and crannies of the state to get the mandate of the people. He has visited religious leaders, and various political leaders within and outside the state. However, observers feel his chances of becoming the next governor of the state may have been limited following the defection of some notable politicians in his party to the APC, which has been in power in the state in the last eight years.
Among the notable people that have dumped the main opposition party in the state are former deputy governor of the state, Yomi Awoniyi, and a former member of the state House of Assembly, Alfred Hello.
Some chieftains of the PDP in the state, Sunday Tribune learnt, have also expressed concerns about Melaye’s candidacy, especially the politics leading to his emergence and chance of their party to win the election. The PDP Elders’ Forum in the state, which has members across nine local government areas in the state and in some parts of Kogi West, made this known in a statement signed by Alhaji Ibrahim Dansofo, where in they expressed their reservations about the manner their candidate had approached the campaign.
In the statement, the PDP elders urged the party’s national leadership to intervene promptly, as they claim that Senator Melaye’s actions might harm the party’s standing in the state ahead of the November poll.
According to the PDP elders, “Senator Melaye’s campaign tactics, characterized by ignoring key party figures, frequent church-hopping, and reliance on prayer groups, are insufficient to secure electoral success.”
The elders stressed the importance of engaging deeply with the party’s core organs and voters, expressing dismay at the growing exodus of influential party members to the APC and other parties in the state, despite their criticism of Governor Yahaya Bello’s performance.
The elders attributed this trend to Senator Melaye’s political approach, noting that many party candidates from previous elections had already switched allegiances, thereby posing a significant threat to the party’s stability.
While raising their concerns about Melaye’s alleged practice of importing campaign personnel from America, the PDP elders said, “Notably, Senator Melaye has aligned himself with Noah Iyodo and Gideon Ojatta, with Gideon claiming residence in America while Noah Iyodo left the country for the United States, opting out of the last election.”
The elders expressed suspicion about Senator Melaye’s true intentions and his commitment to the party’s objectives, just as they accused former vice-president and the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, of being indirectly responsible for the party’s situation in the state following his insistence on supporting Senator Melaye.
The elders called on Atiku to intervene and encourage Senator Melaye to be more transparent about his intentions, stressing that governorship campaigns require more than just public appearances and social media posts.
The SDP drive in Kogi
The candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Alhaji Murtala Yakubu Ajaka is another contestant who believes that he is popular in the state. He has been campaigning among his kinsmen in Kogi East Senatorial District of the state. But his visit to Koton-Karfi, in the Kogi Local Government Area of the state, resulted in violence on two different occasions, one of which witnessed the death of a woman, suspected to be a supporter of APC. This subsequently caught the attention of the state police command as Ajaka was invited but he refused to honour the invitation.
According to him, the allegation of thuggery which warranted his invitation by the police was nothing but a false attempt to drag his image through the mud ahead of the election. Addressing this in a recent press conference anchored by Alhassan Enape, and Faruk Adejo-Audu, the Murtala Ajaka’s campaign organisation and Brigadier-General Benjamin Ipiyomi, who spoke for the party, said the state Commissioner of Police, CP Onuoha Benthrand, was being economical with the truth in the allegation levelled against their candidate.
They berated the state police command for calling its standard-bearer a lawless citizen and a law-breaker who goes around with thugs in his campaigns.
They said, “Our governorship candidate, Muritala Ajaka respects the law of the land in his bid to become the governor of the state. He did not go around with thugs as alleged by the state police commissioner of police, CP Onuoha Benthrand.
“The security around him was provided by the Inspector General of police, when he requested it, as it was becoming obvious that his life is under threat.
“When the present administration prevented him from coming to campaign in the state, he went to court and got an injunction to be given security cover and be allowed to go about his campaign peacefully.
“The court granted his request, restraining the police and other security agencies, including other parties involved to stay off action, pending the determination of the case,” they said.
But in a swift response, the CP Onuoha debunked the allegation of partiality raised by the SDP and Ajaka. While reacting to the SDP allegation of not providing adequate security for its activities in the state, CP Onuoha said the party is undermining his authority as the state CP by not following due process in their request or honouring a series of invitations by the police command.
According to him, his doors are wide open to all political parties who followed due process for security cover during their campaigns and the services of the Nigerian Police are for all.
On the forthcoming gubernatorial election in the state, the CP thereafter warned against acts by the political actors capable of breaching the peace of the state.
Ododo and APC
But of all the 18 candidates vying for the number one political seat in the state, the ruling APC standard-bearer, Alhaji Ododo Ahmed Usman, seems to be the favorite as his party has continued to get more support across the state.
Sunday Tribune findings showed that Ododo has curried the favour of notable politicians in the opposition parties as well as those of religious leaders and highly respected people in the state such as Chief Jide Omokore and a host of others ahead of the poll.
The labour unions in the state have also thrown their weight behind him because his running mate was a labour leader and former chairman of a teachers’ union in the state. A few days ago, about 21 labour unions in the state also resolved to work for Ododo’s victory in the November 11 election. The union leaders and their members pledged their readiness to work for the APC candidate after an address by Comrade Onuh Edoka, who doubles as the chairman of the state’s steering committee for Ododo/Joel Labour Support Group.
The union leaders hinged their resolve to work for Ododo’s interest on the fact that the outgoing APC administration in the state has paid their salaries promptly.
The union pointed out that as former workers and labour leaders, both Ododo and Oyibo have the necessary experience needed to protect the interest of workers if elected.
According to Edoka, Ododo served as an executive of NUEE in Niger State, while Joel, a classroom teacher, was a former treasurer of the state NLC and immediate past chairman of NUT.
While pointing out that it is the Supreme Court ruling that workers across the states of the federation should belong to any registered political parties, Edoke noted that the intention of the Ododo/Joel Support group is to also present a charter of demand for the next government in the state.
But it is not just the organised labour that has thrown their weight behind the APC candidate; the Okun-speaking people in the state have also pledged their readiness to work for the APC candidate ahead of other candidates in the election. The leaders of the Okun extraction made their position known during a meeting convened by the Obaro of Kabba, Oba Solomon Owoniyi, which drew several First-Class traditional, political, and opinion leaders from the five local government areas of the Okun-speaking part of the state.
The royal father had convened the meeting to appeal for a peaceful election; however, the stakeholders told him that they had unanimously agreed to support the APC as they could not be in opposition to the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration at the centre.
“With the love the administration of Governor Yahaya Bello has shown to the Okun nation in the location of projects, infrastructure, and appointment, we have every reason to go in the direction of Governor Bello, President Tinubu, and the APC,” a prominent stakeholder in Okunland, Erick Fiki, said.
Chairman of Ijumu Local Government Area, Taofiq Isah, said it was a collective agreement to deliver Okunland to the APC and its governorship candidate because of the many good things that Governor Bello had done for the Okun people.
“The people of Ijumu have resolved to stay with the APC. We have never had it this good since the creation of the State. We have therefore resolved to vote for the APC in the forthcoming governorship election,” he said.
On his part, Honourable Philip Orebiyi described Yagba as the home of the APC, insisting that the outcome of the November 11 governorship election would reflect the people’s reward for the love Governor Bello has for Okun nation.
“Let me assure you that in Yagba, we will reward the APC with the love Gov. Bello has shown to us in the upgrade of infrastructure, traditional institutions, and appointments. The outcome of the Governorship election will reflect a landslide victory for the APC,” he assured.
In his address at the meeting, the Commissioner for Information and Communication and spokesperson for the APC governorship campaign, Kingsley Fanwo, described Governor Bello as a lover of Okun nation.
He said, “Beginning with the Ejiba Ricemill, one of the biggest projects of this administration; the construction of Kabba township roads, the landmark project of the GYB Model Science Secondary School in Kabba Bunu and the recent establishment of the Kogi State University, Kabba, the administration has proven without mincing words that Okun is dear to his heart.
“The message of Governor Bello to this meeting is for us to build and develop a partnership that will enable us to remember Kwara State and old Kabba province. This partnership, according to Governor Bello, will enable us to record another history regarding the Governorship of the State in the future. Let us work therefore in building enduring legacies that will work with this meeting.
“Governor Bello has urged us to strive towards unity amongst the people of Okun and Ebiras that dates back. He has promised that in or out of office, he will continue to add his voice in ensuring that Okun nation is rewarded abundantly.”
Fanwo described Governor Bello as a highly detribalised person who believes in fairness and justice, assuring that the Okun nation would remain a priority under Usman Ododo when elected.
He urged the leaders of the Okun nation to ensure that the November 11 Governorship election reflects an overwhelming result for the APC.
In her remarks at the meeting, the Secretary to the State Government, Dr (Mrs) Folashade Ayoade, described the meeting convened by the Obaro of Kabba as one in the right direction.
In his welcome message, Oba Solomon Owoniyi said the meeting became necessary for the leaders to set an agenda and direction for the traditional institution and for the Okun people so as to ensure a peaceful election.
Imo State
For Imo State, the governorship candidates representing the 17 political parties are also poised to slug it out in the November 11 governorship contest, despite the fact that it is only one of them that will win the hot seat at the end of the day.
According to observers, the said contest would offer to the people of Imo State an enabling environment and opportunity to exercise their franchise of electing someone who would not only pilot the affairs of the state for another four years but also provide effective governance to them.
It is on this premise that each of the contestants has considered themselves fit and capable to mount the highest position in the state to govern the people of the state.
Since the trumpet sounded and the actual contest kick-started, political gladiators in the race as well as the party standard-bearers have been on the campaign trains, moving from one particular local government area to another with bold visits to the wards, communities, and villages in a bid to effective canvass for votes from the electorates.
There have also been consultations, visitations, and various appearances of the gladiators at burials, naming ceremonies, birthdays, church thanksgiving, church harvest, and synod’s events aimed at winning and converting souls into their camps for the election.
By November 11, all roads will lead to the 1,235 polling units, 305 political wards, 27 local government areas, and three political zones of Orlu, Okigwe, and Owerri in the state for the election and the people across the states are expected to turn out en masse for the exercise.
It is on record that the November 11, 2023 governorship election is the first off-cycle election the state will be having, which is due to the Supreme Court judgment of January 14, 2020, that declared the current state governor, Senator Hope Uzodimma, winner of the 2019 governorship election in the state, against Honourable Emeka Ihedioha, which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had declared as the winner of the election.
But on Saturday, November 11, the state incumbent governor will slug it out with candidates from 16 political parties who represent the three political zones of Orlu, Okigwe, and Owerri, which has the majority because of the apparent desperation of its people to produce the next governor of the state, which observers say, is in total disregard of the much celebrated “Chatter of Equity”.
But despite the huge number of contesting political parties, it is believed that only the ruling party and other strong oppositions, such as the PDP, Labour Party, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Alliance (AA), and the Young Progressives Party (YPP) will pull any substantial surprise as their leaders and candidates have been engaging in a series of political strategies to win the election.
Sunday Tribune observed that as the day of the election approaches, the political gladiators have intensified their campaigns and rallies. While some of them were yet to present their manifestoes to the Imo people, others have been doing the same at different gatherings in the state in recent times. But amidst this, it is expedient to examine the winning edge of the leading candidates.
Governor Hope Uzodimma (APC)
Hope Uzodimma, who hails from Orlu Zone (Imo-West), is seeking re-election as the state governor. He became a governor after he was declared the winner of the 2019 Governorship election by the Supreme Court which upturned the election of Ihedioha, declared as winner by INEC.
Before becoming the governor, Uzodimma had served as a senator representing the Orlu Zone (Imo West) at the national assembly for eight years. However, given the power of incumbency, there have been divided opinions as to whether or not the governor stands a better chance of winning the November 11 election.
Some observers are of the view that his performance has not been bad as he has contributed his best in the governance of the state especially when one considers key areas like mass road rehabilitation, amongst others. But some other political pundits have argued that the worsening state of insecurity that has gripped the state during the governor’s tenure may seriously affect his chances. They said the two geopolitical zones of Orlu, where the governor hails from, and Okigwe have been deserted because of insecurity.
The pundits said that while innocent persons have been killed and many still missing, the majority have lost their houses, and properties as a result of insecurity that has taken over the communities.
According to them, no reasonable Imo resident would leave other political parties in the state and vote for the APC due to the governor’s failure to tame the rising spate of insecurity in the state. Though whether all these insinuations would actually count or affect the choices of the electorate is still left to be seen, the prevailing political climate in the state does not suggest the election will be a mere walk-over for the incumbent governor.
Senator Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu (PDP)
Former Senator Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu, the governorship candidate of the PDP in the state, is currently the party’s National Secretary. He has also represented Imo East Senatorial Zone at the National Assembly for four years. But this is the first time he would be flying the flag of his party as a governorship candidate. Though he contested the PDP governorship primary election in 2019, he lost to Ihedioha.
Despite this, many people see Anyanwu as an experienced politician who grew up and learned under some political elders and politicians in the state. They said he has been shopping for new supporters from different quarters in the state in a bid to brighten his chances despite Uzodimma’s incumbency.
Some observers have opined that the PDP standard-bearer, as a candidate from the marginalised zone of Imo East in the state, stands a better chance of winning the highest votes in the upcoming election because of the people’s sympathy for his zone and the great job he has done within his party in the state.
Senator Athan Achonu (LP)
Senator Athan Achonu is the LP’s standard-bearer in the November 11 governorship election in the state. He hails from Imo-North and has also represented the zone at the National Assembly. He served only one term under the platform of the PDP as he lost his re-election bid to the Senate. But this, observers say, does not still make him a pushover in the guber race.
It is believed that “One Hand General’ as he is popularly called belongs to a mass movement party and given the fan base of his party both at the national and state level, he remains the only candidate that tentatively has the support of the youths. He reportedly controls a large number of supporters across the length and breadth of the state.
Sunday Tribune investigations showed that the LP candidate is already being dreaded by other contestants considering the number of attacks and sponsorship of court cases that have been made against his candidacy.
His party in the state has had a series of court cases since the primary election, but Achonu has been able to win all. Some observers have even said his party remains the most accepted by the people of the state. But this much-talked popularity would definitely be tested on Election Day.
Major General Lincoln Ogunewe AA
Retired Major General Ogunewe is the governorship candidate of the AA in the state. He ventured into politics after his retirement from the military and he participated in the last LP governorship primary election in the state but eventually lost out. Following this, he decamped to the AA where he was given the governorship ticket for the state. But so much hasn’t been said about him, especially in some quarters in the state. But he is still being seen as a standing force in the upcoming election.
Professor James Okoroma (ADC)
Professor James Okoroma stands as the only academic professor in the race whose major concern and target is to apply his ingenuity and academic background to revive the state if elected as its next governor. Okoroma, a candidate of the ADC, has reportedly had different stints in the media, political, and academic world. Some observers believe that he has carried a political bag and accumulated all that is needed to become the next governor of the state.
As a youth and the youngest among the contestants, Professor Okoroma, having hails from the Owerri zone, is said to be loved and accepted by all and sundry in the state, even if this hasn’t been logically proven.
Given his manifestoes, some believe he has the needed credentials that would help him to govern the state if given the opportunity, just as some others feel the teeming population of youths in the state would give him victory during the upcoming election.
Honourable Tony Ejiigu (APGA)
He is the governorship candidate of APGA and also hails from the Owerri zone. His conviction is to become the next governor that would be produced by the zone that has long been marginalised, especially as it concerns producing a governor of the state.
In the history of the state today, Owerri zone has had only eight months of opportunity in the state’s seat of power, while other zones like Orlu and Okigwe have had 16 years and eight years respectively. But whether or not this sentiment will have an impact on the election will be known on Saturday, 11 November.
Bayelsa
For Bayelsa State, even though INEC had said about 16 political parties will be contesting the November 11 governorship election in the state, investigations by Sunday Tribune showed that the guber poll is going to be a three horse race among the candidates of the three leading political parties in the state.
One of the leading candidates, Senator Douye Diri, who is actively in the race for his second term as a governor of the state under the platform of the PDP, will be slugging it out with another political giant in the state, Chief Timipre Silva of the APC, who is the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources. Both men will then have to battle with the youthful grit of Udengs Eradiri, the LP candidate.
Aside the three supposed bigwigs, other candidates contesting to succeed Diri include Mr Warmate Jones Idikio of Accord (A), Alex Akpoebi Bufumoh, Action Alliance (AA), Davies Kalango, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Joseph Waibodei Subiri, APGA, Saturday Osharikeni, Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Magbodo Victor Ben, Boot Party (BP), Ayabke Azebi, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Akeems Micah, National Rescue Movement (NRM), Erpadei Ozato, Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Binalayefa Osuluku, Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Karioru Simeon, Zenith Labour Party (ZLP). Remarkably, two women, Nengimonyo Oguara of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), and Mercy Ogege of the African Peoples Party (APP) are also in the race.
For the state governor, observers say the election will clearly show whether his emergence, which came by divine providence in 2019 has been in the best interest of the people and the state. According to the observers, what will determine the outcome of the election will not just be the power of incumbency at the governor’s disposal, but the depth of his performance in the last four years.
It will be recalled that the governorship candidate of the APC in the 2019 general election, Mr David Lyon, was on the verge of being sworn into office when the Supreme Court nullified his election and ordered that the mantle of leadership be given to Governor Diri on the grounds that Lyon’s deputy, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, presented false information to INEC in aid of his qualification for the November 16 governorship election in the state.
But almost four years after, Mr Diri is back at the poll and it is yet to be seen whether the god of Nigerian ‘insane politics’ will favour him again as he wrest against a bigger gladiator, Silva, whose party wield federal might.
Even despite this, many are of the opinion that the chances of the former minister is still hanging following his disqualification by the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja on Monday.
In the verdict, Justice Donatus Okorowo of the court ruled that Chief Sylva having been sworn in twice and ruled for five years as governor of the state would breach the 1999 constitution as amended if allowed to contest again.
The judge also declared that Sylva was not qualified to run in the November poll because if he wins and is sworn in, he would spend more than eight years in office as governor of the state.
Citing the case of Marwa vs Nyako at the Supreme Court, Okorowo noted that the drafters of the country’s constitution stated that nobody should be voted for as governor more than two times and that the parties to the suit agreed that Sylva was voted into office two times.
He further stated that the Supreme Court ruled in the case of Marwa vs Nyako that nobody can expand the constitution or its scope, adding that if the former minister is allowed to contest the next election, it means a person can contest as many times as he wishes.
But while the judgement appears to have dealt the Silva’s guber race a mild blow, observers are of the view that the unpredictability nature of the country’s politics and judiciary means all hope is not lost for him and the ruling party which has vowed to proceed with its campaign launch for the governorship election.
The ruling party has maintained that Mr Silva remained its standard-bearer for the upcoming poll just as it has appealed the Abuja court judgment. To some observers, the recent Silva’s predicament provides further ground for Governor Diri to ride on, but the coming days will definitely reveal how the ruling party can rescue the situation.
. TheWitness
