Abuja Bureau Chief, LEON USIGBE, writes on the Edo and Ondo governorship elections and what the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) needs to achieve desired outcomes.
EDO and Ondo States gubernatorial elections are two exercises that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is hoping to use to consolidate its recent electoral gains. In recent years, it has faced challenges but has also seen resurgence in certain areas. So, the forthcoming elections in the two states present important opportunities and an uphill task for the main opposition party.
Edo State poll comes up on September 21 followed by that of Ondo on November 16, 2024. The party has since completed its selection process for Edo with Dr Asue Ighodalo emerging from an acrimonious primary as the flag bearer.
Former aspirants, Philip Shaibu, who is the incumbent state deputy governor, though now facing impeachment; Anselm Ojezua and two others have already approached the Federal High Court, Abuja, pressing to stop the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the national leadership of the party from recognising Ighodalo as the party’s candidate. Here, the PDP finds itself facing the task of maintaining its momentum following the victory of Governor Godwin Obaseki in the 2020 gubernatorial election.
Obaseki, who was initially elected on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), defected to the PDP after a bout of internal party disputes. His defection was instrumental in securing victory for the PDP in Edo State, breaking what had become an APC’s foothold in the South-South.
But the party has remained fractional since his joining with one group led by Dan Orbih, who is the PDP national vice chairman (South-South) regarding itself as the legacy PDP and the other elements that came in with Obaseki into the party being described as joiners. The poor performance of the PDP in the last general election in the state is attributable to this schism. Despite several peace efforts, both sides have never been able to find a common ground, and once again putting the party’s chances at risk in the September governorship election.
The APC has a significant presence in Edo and the Labour Party (LP) too has proved through previous exercises that it is also no pushover in the state. These two political parties pose the most obvious threat to the chances of the PDP in Edo. Therefore, for the party to maintain its grip on power in the state, pundits say, it will need to consolidate its support base and address any internal divisions that may arise. Beyond that, the party will need to effectively communicate its achievements and campaign promises to voters, while also addressing key issues such as infrastructure development, education, healthcare, and security.
In Ondo State, the PDP faces a slightly different set of challenges. Since the exit of Segun Mimiko as the PDP governor in 2017, the state has become a stronghold of the APC, with the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu being succeeded by his deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, currently in office. Before he sadly passed away, Akeredolu’s administration had implemented various policies and projects, which may influence voter sentiment in the upcoming election.
Unlike Edo State, the PDP seems to be a united force in Ondo heading into its primary election but with a potentially contentious issue at stake – zoning. Almost all the aspirants for the party gubernatorial ticket are from the southern senatorial district which is claiming the right to produce the next governor of the state and, indeed, had pressured the National Working Committee (NWC) to cede the ticket to the zone during a stakeholders meeting with the leadership earlier this month.
While the Ondo PDP stakeholders say they have agreed on zoning, the national leadership has poured cold water on the possibility. “The NWC clarifies that the party has not zoned its ticket for the November 16, 2024 governorship election in Ondo State to any part or area of the State. The NWC assures all intending Governorship aspirants and all members of the party in Ondo State of a level playing ground in all party nomination processes and activities leading to the November 16, 2024 governorship election in accordance with the Constitution of the PDP (as amended in 2017), the Electoral Act, 2022 and the Party Guideline for the Election. The NWC further assures that the nomination process and activities leading to the governorship election will be all-inclusive, free, fair and transparent in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) and the Party Guideline for the Election,” it said in a statement to debunk the stakeholders’ claim.
Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, recognises the enormity of the task ahead of the PDP in the effort to re-take Ondo and advises that the party must learn from the loss of the state in the last election and remain united even as he points out that the November exercise will not be a walk in the park. “So, we learned bitter lessons (from the last governorship election). For the benefit of everybody, the governorship election in Ondo State is not going to be handed over to anybody. It will be a fight. As PDP, we will fight.
“If, in the past four years, we had that division within us that allowed the seat to slip away from us, this time, we are united and we will stay united all the way to the election. So, this is a time for us to come together.
“We may actually disagree on a few things…So, if you disagree, it’s normal. But let us win the Government House and then all the areas of disagreement, we will keep addressing it. We can only share success; failure is difficult to share. So, by God’s grace, we shall be successful in the forthcoming Ondo State governorship election,” the Oyo State governor affirmed during a recent meeting at the national secretariat.
“We are winning in Edo and Ondo states,” Debo Ologunagba, PDP National Publicity Secretary, maintained when asked to assess the party’s chances in the elections. “Look, any contest between any party, particularly the PDP that is well established all over this country and that has a track record of performance of growth for this economy and improvement of life for the people in its 16 years and then, the APC today that is completely a disaster, the people are tired; there is insecurity, there is hunger, life expectancy is low, crime all over the place, people are dying; there is absence of governance under the APC. The people are tired. So, we are winning in Edo, we are winning in Ondo. The two states have always been the traditional homes of PDP and the record of performance in those two states are there for all to see,” the party spokesman told the Nigerian Tribune.
This optimism is high for the PDP going into the polls in both states. But observers suggest that to make significant inroads in Ondo State in particular, the PDP will need to engage in vigorous grassroots mobilization, reach out to diverse interest groups, and articulate a compelling vision for the state’s future. The party will also need to leverage the strengths of its candidates and capitalize on any weaknesses or shortcomings of the incumbent administration.
Both elections will likely be closely contested, with factors such as voter turnout, campaign strategies, candidate popularity, and socio-political dynamics playing crucial roles in determining the outcomes. The PDP’s success will depend on its ability to navigate these complexities, mobilize support, and effectively communicate its message to voters.
Overall, the forthcoming governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states represent important battlegrounds for the PDP as it seeks to consolidate its position in Nigeria’s political landscape. While the party faces formidable challenges, it also has opportunities to capitalize on shifting political dynamics and public sentiment in these regions.
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